CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 14 Nov 06:00 - Tue 15 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 13 Nov 21:22 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across Sicily and parts of the central Mediterranean and Tyrrhenean Seas.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06Z... at mid-levels a large cyclone is centered over southern Iberia, while the main baroclinic zone is located over northern Europe. Some MLCAPE is expected in the air-mass over the waters over the western Mediterranean and near a weak ridge over the central Mediterranean. Another low-pressure system is located over western Turkey. Further north in the main baroclinic zone a strong westnorthwesterly jet at mid-levels stretches from Iceland to Norway. A shortwave, initially west of Iceland, races ESE-ward.

DISCUSSION

...Sardinia, Central Mediterranean...
Scattered storms are expected to be ongoing on over the norther half of the western Mediterranean. As a WSWly jet -that is most pronounced at mid-levels- moves out of Algeria, wind shear is expected to increase over the southern Thyrrhenean Sea. They storms will gradually get a greater chance to get well-organized and the threat of strong to severe wind gusts should increase as well as the chance of localized large hail where rotating updrafts manage to form. Additionally, one or two tornadoes are not excluded given the relatively high low-level shear that is forecast, which should lcoally exceed 10 m/s in the 0-1 km layer. The slight risk is expected to persist until after the end of the forecast period.

...Western Mediterranean...
Across the area labelled SEE TEXT, a risk of waterspouts will exist given the low LFC's high low-level CAPE and weak flow.

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